It was a busy day (1/31/24) on the news front.
The ADP Private Payrolls report came in below expectations with a gain of 107,000 jobs versus an expected 145,000 jobs gain and the prior month's gain of 158,000. This weak job news was on the heels of a JOLTS report suggesting a weakening job market. Here is commentary from Mike Shedlock on these two reports.
Mike Shedlock
Mike Shedlock
Then at 2:00 pm, the Fed announced they were leaving the Fed funds rate unchanged. Not a big surprise. However, the Fed's written comments and Chairman Powell's remarks later in the afternoon were interpreted as "hawkish" and suggested a March rate cut was unlikely.
Unsurprisingly, the stock market fell on the news with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and the NASDAQ down 2.2%.
Now we await Friday's employment report. Expectations are for a 180,000 non-farm payrolls gain and an unemployment rate of 3.8%. We'll see...
It's early, but here is the latest survey of nowcasts by The Capital Spectator, a notable slowdown from the prior quarter.
