I'd like a soft landing for the economy as much as anyone. However, I can't help thinking that at the very least, we're going to experience some turbulence as we approach touchdown. To wit:
Employment growth continues to surprise to the upside. However, in 2023 more than half of that growth came from leisure, government, and healthcare. Outside of those three industries, growth slowed considerably.
The manufacturing sector continues to contract. Granted, manufacturing has become much less important to our overall economy. Nevertheless, it is a source of weakness, not strength.
More importantly, service sector growth is slowing.
Then there is this headline from The Boston Globe which makes you wonder about the consumer:
