Howard Marks
One person I try to always read or listen to is Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, a leading investment management firm. He has written two books on investing, pens regular memos (to which you can subscribe) and is sought after for interviews on TV, podcasts and live events. Recently, Howard Marks was interviewed on the Invest Like the Best podcast. Follow the link to listen or read the transcript.
You can find links to his (and others') books, blog posts, podcasts and more by clicking on the Reading List tab on the website. I try to add content regularly.
Cryptocurrencies (e.g. Bitcoin)
I'm still not sure how bitcoin etc. can be considered a store of value when it swings so wildly in price.
But for those of you who want to learn more, check out the book: Cryptoassets by Chris Burniske and Jack Tatar or visit CoinDesk's Learn.
What's With Interest Rates?
It's clear, inflation is rising. We see it at the gas pump, in the grocery store, renting a car, or buying a house. Normally, rising inflation is associated with rising interest rates. But take a look at this chart of 10 year treasury bonds:
With headline inflation at 5% or more, it seems to me interest rates should be much higher. However, after rebounding from their pandemic lows in 2020 , rates have stalled - even started declining again. Does this mean the market thinks inflation is temporary? Is the economy worse than it appears? Is the Fed somehow manipulating the bond market? Unfortunately, I don't have any answers. We'll just have to watch this play out over time.
Where Has The Time Gone?
July 4th is just a couple of days away! Here's a look at how the market performed in the first half of 2021. Below, I'm displaying the total returns (including dividends) of the ETF's associated with the S&P 500 (SPY), NASDAQ 100 (QQQ), and the Russell 2000 (IWM). Not bad for six months!
Check Out This Website
I just discovered the Current Market Valuation website where they maintain several stock market valuation models and providing the reader with lots of helpful information about each model. Here's a sample chart - the "Buffett Indicator". You will find a link to this site on our website's resources page.
Don't let the Buffett Indicator's record level spoil your long weekend. I think it shows what is obvious - stocks aren't cheap. But it doesn't show when or why stocks will fall. (More later...)
From The Garden
The butterfly weed is in full bloom now! The blooms almost look like July 4th fireworks. Click the link below to learn more about this plant.
Happy Fourth of July!
“I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated, by succeeding Generations, as the great anniversary Festival. It ought to be commemorated, as the Day of Deliverance by solemn Acts of Devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more.
“You will think me transported with Enthusiasm but I am not. – I am well aware of the Toil and Blood and Treasure, that it will cost Us to maintain this Declaration, and support and defend these States. – Yet through all the Gloom I can see the Rays of ravishing Light and Glory. I can see that the End is more than worth all the Means. And that Posterity will tryumph in that Days Transaction, even altho We should rue it, which I trust in God We shall not.”
John Adams, writing to his wife, July 3, 1776.
Finally
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