It turns out that on a global basis, manufacturing has been contracting for fifteen months (as of 11/30/23), the longest period of decline in history according to Charles Schwab. More specifically:
In particular, the November reading for the Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) marked the 15th month in a row below the 50 level that divides growth from contraction. This is the longest such stretch in history, tied with the downturn that ended over two decades ago in 2002. While this downturn is nowhere near as deep as most of the past manufacturing downturns, its extended duration is unique, marking a recession in duration, if not in depth. Declining new orders indicate production weakness likely continues into the early months of 2024 before firming as inventories are drawn down and demand stabilizes.
While we haven't been significantly impacted by the decline given our services-focused economy, any rebound in 2024 could provide a modest boost at home.
