There's good news on inflation today (12/22) with the release of November's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index. This closely watched inflation index fell 0.1% in November, while core (excluding gas and food) rose a modest 0.1%. Over twelve months, PCE is up 2.6% while core PCI is up 3.2%. So-called "super core" PCE (also excludes shelter) was up 0.3% in November or 3.5% over the past twelve months.
These numbers should be well received by the Fed and investors and raise the likelihood of a rate cut, perhaps even in the first quarter.
Here is ZeroHedge's analysis:
Govt Wage Growth Hits Record High As Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Tumbles
The headline PCE Deflator FELL 0.1% MoM - the first monthly decline since April 2020.
Tyler Durden
Here's what the Wall St. Journal has to say:
Prices Fell in November for the First Time Since 2020. Inflation Is Approaching Fed Target.
Inflation retreated further in November, and consumer spending rose, another indication the U.S. economy can avoid a recession while bringing prices under control.
David Harrison and Amara Omeokwe
And finally, an analysis by Mike Shedlock:
Hooray! Inflation Supposedly Went Negative in November, But How Does it Feel?
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE price index, went negative for the month. Let’s discuss.
Mike Shedlock